Have you seen them too? The comments from people saying “Oh you wait a few months, the market will be flooded with cheap motorhomes and caravans as everyone goes back abroad!” We see a lot of people trying to guess the 2022 market, but without having the insider knowledge it is very difficult to predict. There are multiple factors which compile together to come to a conclusion. So, what will happen to motorhome prices and the market in 2022? Lets see what motorhome industry expert, Shane Malpass has to say!
Various things! As we all know the semi-conductors are a big factor in all things new and electronic. You then have the increase material prices because of demand. There have even been times where manufacturers can’t build the wood cabinets inside, because they can’t get hold of wood. Power shortages in the far east have meant they are on shorter weeks, in which even if that impacts on one component, it could stop the whole build.
Swift are a good example of having to alter parts around. Their lovely Swift Command unit has had to be ditched on the lower priced models to a simpler non screen button, just because it will be easier to get hold of.
Chassis cabs are a general nightmare. Fiat being particularly bad. You then have shipping implications where it’s taking so long to get them delivered due to the demand. For example, we currently have 2 new Fiat work vans that have been sat on the docks of Italy for over a month, and are now sat on the docks of England, with no drivers able to get them back to the Fiat dealership.
Absolutely they have. Even models such as a Swift Escape has gone up around £15,000 for 2022, which is a huge increase. Baileys, and other models have gone up approximately £10,000 per unit. Elddis who are only advertising 2023 prices now, around £10,000-15,000. If you are talking the £100,000 plus German market, you are then talking £15,000 plus, if not more depending on spec. At the time of the February NEC show, there was another 5% increase. And there could well be more price increases to come!
There are even rumours that some European manufacturers are no longer taking orders from the U.K. market, and concentrating on their own area.
No, dealers are well down on stock. Scar so. Some dealers who usually stock 20, 30, 40 motorhomes, are down to as little as 2 or 3 for sale. There is even one chain of 13 branches, that is down to 38 total stock. Thats averaging 2.92 per branch! With new motorhomes in short supply, this is going to be very difficult to improve on.
For the fact that there are very virtually no new 2022 models available, first time buyers flooding onto the market, used motorhomes still unavailable, new motorhome prices going up, that will do only one thing to the used motorhome price in 2022. It will without a shadow of a doubt, go up.
There may be some gradual depreciation in years to come, but for the next few years, probably not. Why? Because every year, new motorhomes increase in value. This means that the used maintains its price so it falls in line with the new prices.
For example, a brand new Swift Escape 674 was £56,450 in 2021 and the used price on a forecourt was around £47,950, do we think that the same used 2021 Swift Escape 674 would still retail at £ 47,950 in 2022, when the new ones are now a whopping £68,995? No! There is just no way that there will be a near £20,000 gap between new and used. Therefore, if you managed to get hold of a Swift Escape in 2021, you probably could get your money back in 2022 in a private sale.
This has caused a big debate between the dealers and manufacturers. I personally think it will, but almost by default. And what I mean by this, the organisers, manufacturers and exhibitors have likely paid for the show and won’t be able to recoup that money by not going. However, it will be a show like none before. There is a good chance that come February, there will be nothing to sell there apart from a potential 2023 model that at the moment is just an idea. And that includes the accessory stands who are also struggling to get stock.
Want to know a little insider to how the dealers and manufacturers work together at the shows…? A manufacturer such as Elddis will pay £300,000 for example for their stand and will get all their new motorhome models there. The dealer will pay approximately £1,500 maybe more per sales person, to sell from that stand for the week, which is why you see sales people from different dealerships.
Now, the question is, would you as a dealer pay £9,000-12,000 plus expenses which is likely to include accommodation, travel and food, to send your staff to the NEC, when already sold out?
BUY NOW! If you see one for sale, grab it! We have all heard that old line from the sales staff, “if you don’t buy it, someone else will”, whereas before that may have been a gentle push to get the sale, it is now a genuine warning. Leave it for a couple of days, the chances are it will be gone, and the next one you look to buy, has gone up in price.
I have been attending motorhome auctions since I was about 5 years old. Now that I am well into my thirties, I class myself as well schooled in the process of both selling and buying at motorhome auctions. And more than anything, I absolutely LOVE this industry!
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I am always more than happy to answer any questions, or chat about the industry!